It’s NOT the Swing Voters, Stupid [VIDEO]

Craig chatting here with Current TV’s Bill Press and the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato about chasing swing voters in battleground states. Fool’s errand? Our consensus: Mobilize the base!


Full Court Press” (Current TV, 7/30)

80 thoughts on “It’s NOT the Swing Voters, Stupid [VIDEO]”

  1. So…could this thing turn into a free-for-all like 2000, or have some sort of safeguards been placed to prevent just giving the White House to whoever has the SCOTUS big hammer, that 5th vote?

  2. 07/27/2012 at 6:58 PM

    mqw: What the hell happened to the democrat party since Obama got elected ? Turned into a bunch of goddamn neocons Thumb up +6

    I see six people favored this comment. I don’t get it.

    The neocons brought this country into the abyss…turned the proud USA into the most-hated capital of the world. Emptied the US treasury and sent the cash to Chalabi and his thugs and criminals, while calling him “a brilliant strategist”. Obama’s left many promises unfulfilled, most glaring the fact that Guantanamo is expanding instead of closing, but whoa! This administration “full of goddamn neocons”? Name me one!

  3. Craig… really great appearance. I always liked Bill Press when he was on MSNBC. And I think you’re more than likely right… it will depend on which party can fire up their base.

    ps…. nice tie… ;-)

  4. I’ve been busy packing up my scarves this morning. Haven’t woven any or looked at them since end of February cuz I’ve been weaving housewares since March.
    I did do a lot of experimenting when I was weaving them this winter. Right now I feel like a kid in the candy store… I’m amazed at what I produced…

  5. Sturg… in a few days I will stop posting to concentrate on selling… however, I will be lurking at night while at the fair.

    I would really love to know what you thought of “Freedom” when you’ve finished reading it.

    …. you can now go back to your regularly scheduled programming…

  6. Only thing , their lies and propaganda is being exposed in Syria , the formula for regime change isn’t working like it did in lybya

  7. Hey dex ,
    You want to take a shot a defending obama’s execution of a 17 year old American kid in Yemen ?
    I really would like someone to explain that ,
    Anybody ?

  8. There are “unknown death squads”, but we do know who’s leading them, paying for them, and arming them ?

    Seems like a glaring contradiction for me.

    al qaeda and the CIA working together, Israel and the Saudis arm in arm ? Nnnnnnnn. I think there are a few problems with this theory. Al Jazeera is in on it ?

  9. MQW,

    How was that killing n execution ?

    I thought it was a successful attack on an al qaeda leader. I am willing to be wrong on this.

  10. At this time in 2004, the babybush campaign was smashing kerry over the head with swiftboats in the swing states. They weren’t solidifying the base in late July, in fact, they were pretty quiet. Despite, all that, babybush took every one of the swing states.

    I think that oh,bummer is following in baby bush’s fottsteps in more than just military and financial policies. I think he is following the babybush re-election playbook, too.

  11. Whenever I hear Larry Sabato….I think of NotLarrySabato

    When I first heard of Sabato and saw his website and other things I had a lot of respect for him. But then I heard him give analysis on Fox news and thought it was pandering for a paycheck at its worse. Since I stopped watching Fox — I haven’t seen him. While it’s nice that he is given a forum to present more accurate views — I put him firmly in the camp of liars for republicans

  12. KGC, gotta push back on your Sabato post. He is a friend I have known for years and I unreservedly vouch for his objectivity (no, he does NOT get a paycheck from Fox, doesn’t need it, so no guilt by association there). Like me, calling the balls and strikes, whether we get them right or wrong, has gotten us in plenty of trouble with both sides over the years.

  13. Two weeks after the U.S. killed American citizen Anwar Awlaki with a drone strike in Yemen — far from any battlefield and with no due process — it did the same to his 16-year-old son, Abdulrahman al-Awlaki, ending the teenager’s life on Friday along with his 17-year-old cousin and seven other people. News reports, based on government sources, originally claimed that Awlaki’s son was 21 years old and an Al Qaeda fighter (needless to say, as Terrorist often means: “anyone killed by the U.S.”), but a birth certificate published by The Washington Post proved that he was born only 16 years ago in Denver. As The New Yorker‘s Amy Davidson wrote: “Looking at his birth certificate, one wonders what those assertions say either about the the quality of the government’s evidence — or the honesty of its claims — and about our own capacity for self-deception.” The boy’s grandfather said that he and his cousin were at a barbecue and preparing to eat when the U.S. attacked them by air and ended their lives

  14. “I obviously am not a big fan of President Obama. I think he’s been one of our weakest presidents… I’d be hard put to find any Democratic president that I’ve disagreed with more.” -- dict cheney in an interview on abc-disney

    That’s odd dict, he agrees with you.

  15. I think we should have the certificate validated in Arizona--there’s an obvious difference in spelling. I smell a conspiracy,

  16. Watching Poland whooping on the US men in beach volleyball. The men don’t have the practiced agility of the women in this sport.

  17. Flate… ooooooh nooooooo…
    not the dreaded conspiracy… anything but that… ;-)

  18. So that is the response to the president’s execution of a minor
    Like I said neo cons

  19. So we have liberal left wing approvalof obama’s kill list , which also had a seventeen year old girl on it
    maybe he got her too , who knows
    Fine

  20. big drama happening in my yard….

    2 mother turkey hens with 8 babies between them were stalked by my neighbor’s 9-month old kitten. The hens left the babies and fooled the kitten into following them… Rick has gone out to try to shoo the kitten away. It spooked the baby turkeys into flying every which way into some trees.

    will the babies reunite with their mothers? will the kitten return home next door? will Rick think it’s a conspiracy?

    stay tuned at 11…

  21. I see that Romney was saying he was going to bomb Iran better and kill them deader than Obama can

    That’s great

  22. Big move around here to keep all cats inside and to neuter ferals. What does Rick think about that?

  23. He can bomb the hell out of the Iranians, but he had better leave the Persians alone. They’re okay.

  24. Rick says he has 2 cats that go outside too… but they be old (14 &15) and no longer even chase chipmunks.

    When one lives in the woods…. cats are gonna play outside…. and be… well… cats.

    but the neighbor… and us… always bring our feline friends in at night… too many predators.

  25. jeeeeeeeesuuuuuus….

    good thing I wasn’t drinking anything when I read your 5:35, Flate…. I’d a had to make you clean up my screen and keyboard…

  26. Can’t comment on KGC’s observation from the Fox appearance by Sabato having not seen it, but I was in Richmond during the Doug Wilder years and the Clinton ’92 election, and Sabato was all over the TV. I never thought of him as anything other than straight up about those two pretty hotly contested political issues. I’ve never seen him as slanted one way or the other.

  27. So Flatus, do the Persians wear like red scarves or something to distinguish them from other Iranians (like Arabs maybe), or do they just hang out near the Gulf? Wouldn’t want to mistakenly kill them. (I know next to nothing about Iran (except for their nutty leaders), Persians or Arabs, so ignore me….)

  28. Craig,

    Just my opinion but I liked to read his stuff and thought the website and the predictions were great and then I saw him on Fox and I feel like he edited himself on Fox. I haven’t watched Fox since 2004 and I never see him any place else.

    Didn’t John Kerry win the silver star

    from Sabato’s twitter account:

    BTW, Webb’s no liberal caricature. Ever met a liberal who’s won a Navy Cross for heroism, a Silver Star, 2 Bronze Stars, 2 Purple Hearts?

    source

    Sabato eventually apologizes

    But since he’s your friend -- I won’t do it again

  29. Is it just me or does anyone else ever get the feeling that Mitt Romney is just Barack Obama disguised as a white guy?

  30. I’m SURE he was just misunderstood…

    “Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney angered Palestinian leaders on Monday when he suggested here that the Israeli economy had outpaced the economy of the Palestinian territories in part because of advantages of “culture.”

    “Palestinians said that Romney had ignored the long-running Israeli restrictions on crossings from the Gaza Strip and West Bank, which they say are an enormous drag on trade.

    “Romney’s campaign said afterward that the remark had been misinterpreted. “This was not in any way an attempt to slight the Palestinians,” Stuart Stevens, Romney’s chief strategist, told reporters in a later stop in Gdansk, Poland. “And everyone knows that.”

    … wellllll, almost everyone…. (except those stupid Palestinians I guess, right Stu?).

    From the guys who criticized Obama for saying “Polish concentration camp” instead of “Nazi concentration camp in Poland.” I could be wrong, but I think all concentration camps in Poland were Nazi concentration camps.

  31. Iranians and Iraqis are Persian
    The country of Iran has never invaded another country or started a war

  32. MQW,
    Thanks for your posts and links, very informative..Your making me miss Solar! You two really expose the hypocrisy of the left when it comes to wars and killing innocents..Apparently when its a Democratic President doing the warring its a ok..I know from my little town..The Democratic club used to be on the street corner of 44 in New Smyrna Beach protesting the wars during the Bush years, ah but once we got a Dem President, magically they disappear..

  33. Persians are a subset if the Iranians, an Indo-European people. That is, they speak an Indo-European language, Farsi. They, not Germans are the real Aryans. Iran also has other ethnic groups, including Baluchis, Turks (mostly Azeris), Kurds, and a few Arabs.

    Arabs are Semitic people. Arabic is a Semitic language, similar to Hebrew, Aramaic, and Syriac. The majority of Iraqis are Arabs, although the Kurds constitute a large minority. Representatives of very few other minority groups live in Iraq.

    Arabs and Iranians tend to to split along Sunni-Shi’ite lines. The vast majority of ethnic Iranians are Shi’ite, and the majority of Arabs are Sunni. There is a religious animosity besides a linguistic division between Iranians and Arabs.

    When I worked in a hospital in the early 70s, I met a gorgeous Iranian nurse, who I chatted up. I said something about Arabs, and she corrected me sharply. “We are not Arabs !” she declared. “We are nothing like them!”

    I never made headway with her after that.

  34. MQW,

    None of the so called neocons in the Obama administration have ever questioned my state of mind or my patriotism when I disagreed with them! A lot different than the piss ants who ran the Bush administration. No comparison.

    Don’t even go there.

  35. As badly and often as Dick Cheney screwed the country, I’m surprised that he did not get a terminal STD rather than heart trouble.

    And he thinks Obama is a bad President? At least Obama is not subject to arrest outside the U.S.

  36. For various reasons of their own, Obama’s base is probably going to opt out in large numbers come November.

    There simply won’t be enough undecided voters left to make up the difference. Sadly there is little if anything Obama can do between now and then to energize the base.

    If you are team Obama you better hope that Mitt continues to self destruct.

  37. jace says:
    07/30/2012 at 8:43 PM

    As badly and often as Dick Cheney screwed the country, I’m surprised that he did not get a terminal STD rather than heart trouble.

    And he thinks Obama is a bad President? At least Obama is not subject to arrest outside the U.S.

    Thumb up +1 more if I could figure out how to rig the system

  38. The only question that the genius Axelgrease and company should be asking themselves right now is, what base?

    If they had a base, they wouldn’t have to put Bill Clinton in prime time at the convention.

  39. Cheney is such a friggin’ jerk. The Republican announce the program for their convention and there is not a single Bush on the program — and this is the moment Cheney chooses to rise from the dead.

    The Palin remark was designed to make sure he got headlines.

    Why does anyone think he is anything but a third rate felon with friends in high places

  40. I think Clinton charges up the base and Obamarama needs that. Right now Obama’s stakeholders are Democrats, labor and minority voters. I think Obamarama needs something: either something Mittens gives them as a gift or something that unites his three main groups — the Republicans are certainly providing plenty of ammunition in their voter suppression drives.

  41. XR

    Remember when all Iranians suddenly became “Persian” after the Shah was overthrown. They are serious about that “we’re not Arabs” identity.

  42. Billy Bova -- Is it just me or does anyone else ever get the feeling that Mitt Romney is just Barack Obama disguised as a white guy?

    It’s just you. Agree with him or not, the President is decidedly not that clumsy and ineffectual.

  43. Billy Bova -- Is it just me or does anyone else ever get the feeling that Mitt Romney is just Barack Obama disguised as a white guy?

    It’s just you. Agree with him or not, the President is decidedly not that clumsy and ineffectual.

  44. Jace,

    I nominate you for the Pulitzer Prize for your 8:26 post.

    I needed that reminder. Thank you.

  45. “It’s just you. Agree with him or not, the President is decidedly not that clumsy and ineffectual.” -Jamie @ 10:12 pm

    HAHAHA No, he’s graceful and ineffectual. HAHAHAHA

    Damn, I can’t stand romney, Jamie. The guy just puts browns me off every time he opens his weaselish mouth.
    As much as my disappointment with oh,bummer pains me, every word that romney thrusts upon me is agony.
    I hated that ditsy moral midget they put up in ’08, but he was a tower of strength and virtue compared to this creepy, grasping, self-satisfied, conniving, scroogy, loutish, looter & bully . . . .

    He’s not babybush, cheney, rumdumb, bolton, or yoo. He’s not nixon, agnew, laird, kissinger, or erlichmann, but he is a nasty piece of work nonetheless. I want to cast a million votes against him. But I don’t want to cast one for oh,bummer.

    Sigh. Thanks for letting me rage.

  46. Craig,

    Thanks for providing the space where
    i can rage among well-educated, patriotic, lovers of justice.

    May you sleep well tonight, sir. Sweet dreams and healing rest to you.

    Goodnight.

  47. It is 2:43 a.m. And Craig is about to be on Imus…Now I have a good reason to have stayed up this late..l

  48. romney’s observations in israel about abutting countries

    …you notice a dramatic, stark difference in economic vitality. And that is also between other countries that are near or next to each other. Chile and Ecuador, Mexico and the United States. I noted that part of my interest when I used to be in the world of business is I would travel to different countries was to understand why there were such enormous disparities in the economic success of various countries

    so outsourcing (offshoring) must be his way of improving the less cultured, spreading joy and healing the disparities.
    ever the good missionary. not too good the diplomat however.

  49. here’s my take…

    Are both parties hypocritical?… YUP
    Have both parties started senseless wars?… YUP
    Are both parties bought and sold?… YUP YUP

    As a citizen of this great country… I have a choice.
    I can sit out in November or I can go vote. If I vote, I can choose either major party, vote third party, or leave any office choice blank.

    If my state was polling big for either candidate in the presidential race, I’d vote third party this time around. However, NH is a swing state… I will choose to vote for either Romney or Obama. I really can’t stand Romney for all the reasons already stated by others here. So even though I’m not thrilled with Obama… I will be voting for him. For me it’s a simple choice… and I’ve already made it.

    so sue me…. :twisted:

  50. I pay little attention to national polling numbers, it’s hard to tell what the sample is. A presidential election is 50 individual contests. This website had the 2004 and 2008 elections spot on: http://electoral-vote.com/

    Right now they are showing a comfortable lead for the president.

    Great points by Sabato and Craig in that the almighty “swing” voter may be a mirage. Mobilization is the key and with president Clinton speaking in the prime spot at the convention and an incumbent president, the base/party won’t abandon him. There will be enthusiasm. It is his election to lose. He can lose it though.

    My thesis in this election is that president Obama is very vulnerable with 1.5% 2nd Q growth and other soft economic numbers, but I am concluding that Romney is not the guy. If the Republicans had a candidate who was better skilled, Democrats should really be worried. I don’t think those slightly leaning Democrats are going to be able to imagine Romney as president and will not jump ship.

  51. Hey, Romney campaign — You can kiss my ass!

    Republicans do not apologize even IF they diss Americans on foreign soil. Romney in Europe reminds me of GWB pulling on the wrong door when he was in Asia. Fool. Makes the can’ts proud.

    Lech and Ann Romney shared a union fist moment together. Too bad they did not bump knuckles.

    Obama’s huge popularity overseas is hard to overcome and the Romney campaign targeted the only areas where Obama has failed. Polish missles and Lech — no love lost to Obama.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/301474/president-obama-shuns-lech-walesa-rory-cooper

  52. Let’s see, does the US occupy Mexico or Canada and enforce a blockade against them that prevents the normal flow of goods into and out of those countries? I suppose that teeny tiny distinction between the Israeli-Palestinian situation and the US-Mexican situation escaped Willard. Now this is where Solar could shed some light on this issue. (pun intended)

  53. Well Jamie, I suppose you are correct, the President does in fact have a much better singing-voice than Mittens, he also at least puts real banking-guys in charge of the economy instead of these imitation private equity guys, and rarely twists-up any of his words like Mittens, other than the “you didn’t build it” gaffe the other week in my hometown of Roanoke, VA, which Team Mittens is continuing to take out of context and use to gin-up fake outrage with. Must just be me…

  54. Jamie…the Mormon cursing jar was filled in Poland!

    CNN had an interesting piece on Obama’s Mother. Her family tree includes one of the first slaves in the America…Mr. Punch. Obama is now 5/8 African American.

  55. Some current observations on the outlook regarding the base turnout, and party enthusiasm levels:
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/156194/Democratic-Voting-Enthusiasm-Down-Sharply-2004-2008.aspx

    Democratic Voting Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2004, 2008
    Republicans more enthusiastic than in 2008
    by Jeffrey M. Jones

    PRINCETON, NJ — Democrats are significantly less likely now (39%) than they were in the summers of 2004 and 2008 to say they are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual” in the coming presidential election. Republicans are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and the same as in 2004.

  56. I think Obamarama should go on vacation until the election and let Romney campaign by himself

  57. Isn’t the issue energizing the base in the swing states without alienating the undecided voters in those states to the point that they vote for the other guy? You gotta get the base to vote if you want to win -- you don’t have to win the base. But you gotta get the indies to vote for you if you want to win (at least in the 5 or so states that will decide the election).

    Now here’s an interesting chart, compliments of RCP:

    http://tinyurl.com/buus67y

    Upstart Kerry against sitting Bush compared with upstart Romney against sitting Obama. To me the notable difference between the two years is the consistency in this election versus the inconsistency in 2004. For the past 2 months, RCP’s electoral map has had Obama with a 40 -- 50 point edge in EC votes (now 231 -- 191) with 116 EC votes up for grabs. Obama has 5 pt leads (based on polling averages) in 3 states (24 EVs) and 3 point leads in 3 others (29 EVs). If those hold -- and really, who knows? -- Obama will win in Nov. without having to win Florida or Virginia.

    (Isn’t this a fun waste of time?)

  58. And hey, I’m not enthusiastic about voting this year -- but I’m gonna vote even though it won’t make ANY difference in the outcome in WV. Does my lack of enthusiasm make my vote count any less than my enthusiastic Republican friends (and they REALLY are enthusiastic about voting against Obama -- they really are not enthusiastic about voting for Romney -- or so they say)? The question is how many voters in the base plan to vote versus how many voted in 2008 isn’t it?

  59. With these new Right-to-Vote laws now having been enacted, will I be able to vote once for each government ID that I have. (I’m white and scrub-up good.)

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